The danger of a geomagnetic storm for the high-tech society
Our GFZ focus topic: Space weather
The geomagnetic storm in 1859
First of all, the most curious thing: there was no storm. But mysterious things happened on 1 September 1859 and the following days. As if by magic and for no apparent reason, the electromagnetic telegraph system, which was so important for sending messages over long geographical distances, collapsed or suddenly worked without electricity. Only a few years earlier, the system had been switched from manual operation to electromagnetic automation, which was a great achievement. Now the telegraphs were failing. They failed almost simultaneously across the entire northern hemisphere. As a result, the event attracted a great deal of media attention.
Richard Christopher Carrington in the English village of Highgate was doing what he always did that day: the talented scientist was observing the sun through a telescope. On this day, he saw something phenomenal and unprecedented: two intensely glowing white spots suddenly appeared on the sun. He was the first person to directly observe a solar storm.
"My first impression was that by some chance a ray of light had penetrated a hole in the screen attached to the object-glass, by which the general image is thrown into shade, for the brilliancy was fully equal to that of direct sun-light; but, by at once interrupting the current observation, and causing the image to move by turning the H.A. handle, I saw I was an unprepared witness of a very different affair. […] The impression left upon me is, that the phenomenon took place at an elevation considerably above the general surface of the sun […]." (Quotation R. C. Carrington)
Northern lights sighted far to the south
In 1859, auroras were sighted far to the south. There are reports from Rome, Havana and Hawaii. They are the most visible feature of a geomagnetic storm. This is because during a geomagnetic storm, the auroral zone becomes brighter and shifts towards the equator. This intensified aurora is a sign of the violent electrodynamic processes that follow the sun's burst of energy. Auroras occur when electrically charged particles collide with atoms and molecules in the Earth's atmosphere, causing them to glow. Due to the deformation of the magnetosphere during geomagnetic storms, polar lights can also be seen in Central Europe. In Carrington's time, when most people were engaged in mechanical labour, a geomagnetic storm of this extraordinary strength had little practical impact on their lives, apart from disrupting the telegraph system and terrifying people.
How polar lights form? (German only)
Carrington event of 1859
Lucky coincidence in 2012: a superstorm on the sunny side facing away from the earth
On 23 July 2012, the sun also ejected a huge cloud of electrically charged particles into space. By the time the plasma crossed the Earth's orbit, our planet had already travelled 23 million kilometres on its orbit and so "missed" the high-energy cloud. 23 million kilometres sounds like a lot, but it was only nine days that prevented us from a potential catastrophe.
Thought experiment: The 1859 magnetic storm today
Threat to our modern technology
Effects on our high-tech society
![[Translate to English:] Feld mit Strommasten](/fileadmin/_processed_/4/e/csm_20240423_AdobeStock_110294321_Andreas-Guhl_kleiner_49228b934b.webp)
Historical data and geological archives show that the passage of a plasma cloud of high-energy particles such as protons, electrons and atoms can be much stronger than we have experienced on Earth in recent decades. The question is not whether a very strong magnetic storm will hit us at some point. That will happen. The question must rather be how prepared we are as a society. That depends on us. Even such an exceptional event, which only occurs every 100-200 years, can have a mild outcome if intensive preparations have been made at a societal level.
Society's increasing dependence on technologies in space, as well as new developments such as autonomous driving in road traffic, have increasingly focussed attention on space weather in recent years. There are currently around 3,000 operational satellites in near-Earth space; by the end of the decade, the number of satellites is expected to rise to over 50,000.
The harmful effects of space weather processes include radiation that can damage satellites, density fluctuations in the ionosphere and plasmasphere that can affect Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positioning and navigation, density fluctuations in the thermosphere that make satellite orbit prediction and space debris tracking unreliable, and induced currents that can affect power grids. Concrete impacts can therefore be expected:
- Radio blackout
- Impairment of the extra-high and high-voltage grid
- Impairment of submarine cables
- Unusual corrosion of oil pipelines
- Interference with GPS signals (interference with global navigation satellite systems)
- Interference with ground-based radio communications
- Interference with satellite-based communication, satellite failures (loss of power supply due to misalignment, loss of on-board electronics due to particle bombardment)
- Malfunction of avionics
- Satellite-based TV/radio transmissions fail
- Payment by credit card no longer possible
- Mobile phone networks will probably remain in place
- High-energy particles penetrate the outer skin of spacecraft and endanger astronauts
If radio communication is suddenly lost across the board, GPS systems fail, satellite communication breaks down and our power grids fail completely, it is easy to imagine the chaos we could be thrown into if we are not prepared. The solar storms of the last 150 years give us an idea of the consequences that the passage of a plasma cloud will have on technology and society. However, modern times have never experienced an event like 1859.
Thought experiment: The storm of 1859 today
High solar activity expected in 2025
We are currently approaching the next solar maximum in 2025, which is why moderate and strong solar storms are increasingly to be expected. Solar activity follows cycles, as the electrically charged hot gas of the sun moves and creates a strong magnetic field in the process. This reverses completely every 11 years or so. We do not know for sure whether the events in 2025 will be as strong as the Carrington event in 1859 or whether moderate geomagnetic storms will cause many anomalies in the numerous spacecraft in near-Earth space. The last two solar cycles have been rather quiet, which does not mean that the current cycle will be similarly quiet. We need to be prepared and understand what the consequences will be of the extreme events and very strong storms that are often observed in space, says Yuri Shprits, Head of the Space Weather and Space Physics Section.
Events such as the unintended re-entry and subsequent burning up of the Starlink satellites in 2022 shortly after their launch show that both the technology and the specialised personnel are not adequately prepared for such strong solar activity. On 3 February 2022, 40 of the 49 Starlink satellites launched into space by SpaceX crashed.
Geomagnetic storm
What happens physically?
GFZ focus topic: Space weather
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Mai 2024
