A real-time early warning system can help stakeholders prepare for space weather events. Some satellites can be put into protective mode and maneuvers and software updates can be avoided. Stakeholders need to get warnings with sufficient lead time, know the probabilities of the events to occur, have reliable predications based on state-of-the-art models and real-time data and have predictions presented in an easy-to-understand format.

Several prediction tools have been developed in two recent projects funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, namely No. 637302, the PRediction of Geospace Radiation Environment and Solar wind parameterS (PROGRESS) and No. 870452 Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic Storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER). These projects resulted in the development of the tools that are now operating on the PAGER website at www.spacepager.eu/data-products. The unique prediction network is the first system that couples codes from the Sun to the magnetosphere and Earth surface and also the first to provide comprehensive predictions with confidence levels.

More recently, the FLAG (Forecasts and Long-term probabilistic data Assimilative prediction of the effects of Geomagnetic storms) project will build upon PAGER and PROGRESS which combine state-of-the-art codes and Machine Learning (ML) tools by means of orchestration to produce accurate long-term, data assimilative and probabilistic forecast of the near-Earth space environment (Figure 1). This project will help transition the codes to operations at ESA. In the FLAG project we will further improve the predictions by reorganizing the coupling of the codes, providing realistic ensembles, adding new modules, and carefully validating the new framework as a whole. 
The final output of the FLAG early warning system will be simple to understand “traffic-light” indicators that will tell the stakeholders if their particular spacecraft, depending on the orbit and materials used, is in danger or not. 

Project duration

4. 2025 - 4. 2027

Funding

ESA

PI

Prof. Dr. Yuri Shprits (GFZ)

Coordination

Dr. Elodie Kendall (GFZ)

 Partners

• Jorge Amaya (ESA)
• Kuan-Yu Ke (GFZ)
• Dr. Artem Smirnov (LMU, GFZ)
• Prof. Tony Arber (University of Warwick)
• Dr. Keith Bennett (University of Warwick)
• Dr. Sylvie Benck (Université catholique de Louvain)
• Stanislav Borisov (Université catholique de Louvain)
• Dr. Jérémie-Marie PLEWA (TRAD Tests and Radiation)
• Damien Herrera (TRAD Tests and Radiation)
• Dr. Erwin de Donder (BIRA; Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy)