Summary
Once again, GFZ researchers have been successful in securing the European Research Council's (ERC) most highly endowed grants, the Synergy Grants: PD Dr Heidi Kreibich, head of the Hydrology Section, is coordinator of the “LIMIT2ADAPT” project. Dr.-Ing. Christian Voigt, scientist in the Global Geomonitoring and Gravity Field Section, is a project partner in “SnowShifts.” This means that a total of around four million Euros will go to GFZ over the next six years.
With LIMIT2ADAPT, hydrologist PD Dr Heidi Kreibich will work with researchers from the US, the UK, and the Netherlands to investigate the limits of adaptation to river flooding. The aim is to develop a model that can be applied worldwide and integrates local adaptation decisions into the assessment of flood risk in order to quantify the limits of adaptation. This will enable the identification of regions that are close to reaching the limits of adaptation. It is precisely in these regions that support from global development aid or regional development programmes is particularly urgent. The GFZ will receive 2.5 million Euros in funding.
The SnowShifts project, in which Dr.-Ing. Christian Voigt is involved as a partner, is investigating fundamental snow properties in extreme polar and high mountain regions. Voigt is responsible for analysing the gravimetric observations. These include data from superconducting gravimeters at polar and high alpine locations. On the other hand, it is data from the GRACE satellite missions. The GFZ will receive 1.5 million Euros for this.
Prof. Susanne Buiter, Scientific Director of the GFZ, says:
“We are seeing how human-induced climate change is increasingly affecting life on our planet. This makes it all the more important to develop strategies to adapt to the changing conditions. The project coordinated by Heidi Kreibich aims to support investment decisions regarding adaptation measures by identifying vulnerable regions and combining socio-economic and hydro-meteorological factors in a model. At the same time, we must continue to monitor our planet using state-of-the-art methods, as the project does, in which Christian Voigt is an important partner. I am delighted about the awards, which also reflect the breadth of our work at GFZ. Congratulations to Heidi Kreibich, Christian Voigt, and everyone involved!“
Brandenburg's Minister of Science, Dr. Manja Schüle, also offers her congratulations:
“The risk of flooding in residential areas is increasing worldwide. The main causes are the expansion of settlements in river valleys and the increase in extreme precipitation due to climate change. Against this backdrop, the LIMIT2ADAPT project, which aims to develop a model to identify global hotspots and adaptation options, is highly relevant to society and politics. And that is why it is entirely justified in receiving grant funding from the European Research Council. This means that the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for GeoResearch currently has 16 ongoing ERC grants. That is a record for Brandenburg State – congratulations! It clearly shows that the GFZ is now in a league of its own when it comes to scientific excellence and international relevance in geo, environmental, and climate research."
Background LIMIT2ADAPT
Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme events. These include record rainfalls, which are becoming more frequent and more intense. At the same time, people are expanding settlements in river valleys that are at risk of flooding. Against this backdrop, the LIMIT2ADAPT project is particularly relevant. Heidi Kreibich and her partners are focusing on the risk posed by river flooding, looking at the most important stakeholder groups: people and households affected by flood risk, government agencies, and insurance companies.
How much can local authorities or nation states invest in flood protection, for example, dikes? How adaptable are people and what influences their decisions: age, household income, government measures? And: When is a risk perceived as intolerable, so that no further adaptation measures are implemented and people have no choice but to relocate? These are just some of the questions that are crucial for determining limits of adaptation.
Four world-leading experts in flood risk assessment have joined forces to develop a model that shows the ‘hotspots’ around the world, i.e., the regions that are particularly close to reaching the limits of their adaptability. The researchers will develop and test their model based on highly detailed data from the last 50 years (1970-2020) from four selected sample regions in Africa, Asia, North America, and Europe. The calculated results will show whether their model corresponds well enough with the observed reality or needs to be adjusted. The final result will be a global projection until the end of this century. International organisations such as the UNEP development aid programme, as well as nation states and local authorities, would then have a map showing them which regions most urgently need to invest in adaptation measures.
In addition to Heidi Kreibich from the GFZ, who is coordinating the entire project, the following researchers are involved in leading roles as PIs (principal investigators): Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands), Paul D. Bates (University of Bristol, UK), and Eric Tate (Princeton University, USA). The entire project will receive 10 million Euros, a quarter of which will go to the GFZ.
Background “SnowShifts”
The causes and effects of changes in snow, ice, and permafrost are still subject to uncertainty. This is largely due to the lack of quantification of snow in extreme regions and the incomplete integration of snow processes into climate and land surface models. The aim of the “SnowShifts” project is to minimise these uncertainties and to significantly improve and quantify our understanding of changes in snow processes within the Earth and climate systems. The focus is on the regions most affected by climate change: the Arctic, Antarctica, and high mountains.
The project integrates innovative technologies, such as satellite-based photon-counting laser altimeters, terrestrial superconducting gravimeters, and gravity monitoring from space, into complex numerical modeling. Christian Voigt from the GFZ’s section “Global Geomonitoring and Gravity Field” section is responsible for analysing the gravimetric observations. These include data from superconducting gravimeters at polar and high alpine locations, including the GFZ's own site ZUGOG on the Zugspitze. On the other hand, it also includes data from the GRACE, GRACE-FO, and future GRACE-C satellite missions, as well as their downscaling and combination with terrestrial data.
The project brings together the expertise of teams from three European universities and other partner institutions: The project is led by Andreas Kääb (University of Oslo), Michael Lehning (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne) and Franziska Koch (BOKU University in Vienna). In addition to the GFZ, other partners include CESBIO in Toulouse (France), ANavS GmbH in Munich and the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF in Davos. This project will also receive total funding of 10 million Euros, 1.5 million of which will go to the GFZ.
Background ERC Grants at the GFZ
LIMIT2ADAPT is the sixteenth active ERC grant for the GFZ, six of which are Synergy Grants. In addition, there are ten other ongoing ERC grants in which GFZ researchers play a leading role (seven) or are important project partners, as in the case of SnowShifts (three).
With its prestigious Synergy Grants, the European Research Council (ERC) funds collaborative projects with an average of around €10 million per project, distributed among the participating institutions. A total of 66 teams across Europe have been awarded an ERC Synergy Grant in this funding round. There were more than 700 submissions.