Shocks in a Box | Analogue Earthquakes & Seismic Cycles
Experimental simulation of seismotectonic deformation across time-scales ranging from earthquakes to tectonic evolution.




This project is realized in our Laboratory for Experimental Tectonics at the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences Potsdam (HelTec) as well as in our partner lab at the University of RomaTre (LET).
Rosenau et al. (2017): Analogue earthquakes and seismic cycles: Experimental modelling across timescales, Solid Earth, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-8-597-2017
Seismic vs. aseismic slip:
- Rosenau et al.: Creep on seismogenic faults: Insights from analogue earthquake experiments, EarthArXiv, https://dx.doi.org/10.31223/osf.io/24u5h
- Rudolf et al. (2023): Time-dependent Frictional Properties of Granular Materials Used In Analogue Modelling: Implications for mimicking fault healing during reactivation and inversion, Solid Earth, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-14-311-2023
- Kosari et al. (2022): Upper plate response to a sequential elastic rebound and slab acceleration during laboratory-scale subduction megathrust earthquakes. J. Geophys. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024143
- Rudolf et al. (2021): The spectrum of slip behaviours of a granular fault gouge analogue governed by rate and state friction, Geoch. Geoph. Geos., https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GC009825
Earthquake interaction:
- Corbi et al. (2024): Asperity size and neighboring segments can change the frictional response and fault slip behavior: insights from laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, J. Geophys. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JB026594
- Rosenau et al. (2019): Synchronization of great subduction megathrust earthquakes: Insights from scale model analysis. J. Geoph. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB016597
- Corbi et al. (2017): Control of asperities size and spacing on seismic behavior of subduction megathrusts, Geoph. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074182
Seismotectonic evolution:
- Kosari et al. (2023): Along-strike seismotectonic segmentation reflecting megathrust seismogenic behavior. Geology 2023; doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G51115.1
- Kosari et al. (2022): Strain signals governed by frictional-elastoplastic interaction of the upper plate and shallow subduction megathrust interface over seismic cycles, Tectonics, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021TC007099
- Rosenau & Oncken (2009): Fore-arc deformation controls frequency-size distribution of megathrust earthquakes in subduction zones, J. Geoph. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JB006359
- Rosenau et al. (2009): Shocks in a box: An analogue model of subduction earthquake cycles with application to seismotectonic forearc evolution, J. Geoph. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JB005665
EQ forecasting:
- Mastella et al. (2022): Forecasting surface velocity fields associated with laboratory seismic cycles using Deep Learning, Geoph. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099632
- Corbi et al. (2020): Predicting imminence of analog megathrust earthquakes with Machine Learning: Implications for monitoring subduction zones. Geoph. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086615
- Funiciello et al. (2020): Analysis of global-scale and experimental data to unravel the seismic behaviour of the subduction megathrust, Front. Earth Sci., https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.600152
- Corbi et al. (2019): Machine Learning can predict the timing and size of analog earthquakes. Geoph. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081251
- Rosenau et al. (2010): Experimental insights into the scaling and variability of local tsunamis triggered by giant subduction megathrust earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JB007100
Methodological developments:
- Mastella et al. (2022): Foamquake: a novel analog model mimicking megathrust seismic cycles, J. Geoph. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB022789
- Kosari et al. (2020): On the relationship between offshore geodetic coverage and slip model uncertainty: Analog megathrust earthquake case studies, Geoph. Res. Lett, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088266
- Rudolf et al. (2019): Smart speed imaging in Digital Image Correlation: Application to seismotectonic scale modelling, Front. Earth Sci., https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00248
- Rudolf et al. (2016): Rheological benchmark of silicone oils used for analog modeling of short- and long-term lithospheric deformation, Tectonophysics, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2015.11.028
Numerical simulation:
- Pipping et al. (2016): On the efficient and reliable numerical solution of rate-and-state friction problems, Geoph. J. Int., https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggv512
- Li et al. (2014): Splay fault triggering by great subduction earthquakes inferred from finite element models, Geoph. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058598