Background

Earthquakes are the final step in a long chain of processes in the subsurface, starting with stress buildup, the development of damage in fluid-affected zones or growing microcracks, the silent slip and weakening of faults, and the nucleation process that culminates in the rapid propagation of a rupture front leading to large slip and damaging earthquakes. To understand earthquake initiation and nucleation, physical models must be developed and rigorously tested against observations of seismicity using statistical methods. We develop and improve seismicity models and use them to constrain physical and statistical parameters of faults. Such models can be applied to a wide range of processes, from acoustic emission in the laboratory or for non-destructive testing, to the study of earthquake swarms during magmatic intrusions or anthropogenic activities, to the development and improvement of seismic hazard models.

Scientific key questions

• How can we better link seismicity models to fault geology and stress?
• How can we improve the statistical forecasts of earthquake occurrence?
• How can we use seismicity models to constrain subsurface rheology and temperature in real applications?
• How to combine seismicity and process models during seismic and volcanic crises?

Related projects

• ICDP-EGER
• DEEPEN | DErisking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments
• SFB 1294 Data Assimilation, Projekt B04  "Parametric and nonparametric modeling of spatiotemporal change patterns in seismicity using Hawkes processes" (2017-2025)
• Groningen Seismicity Model